What to expect from Tokyo’s new office supply in 2026 and beyond

New supply will be moderate but will be dominated by large mixed-use projects.

Tokyo’s office market will welcome a handful of significant developments in 2026, although it will be moderate compared to that of 2025. 

According to Savills, the largest completion will be Nihonbashi 1-Chome Naka C project in the Nihonbashi & Yaesu submarket, which is reportedly already mostly pre-leased despite the amount of time left until completion. 

Here’s more from Savills:

Meanwhile, the second office phase of TAKANAWA GATEWAY CITY, THE LINKPILLAR II is slated for completion in 2026, while nearby, the redevelopment of the Oimachi Station front area aims for completion in the same year, delivering two mixed-use office, retail and residential towers, in addition to significant amounts of public green space. Indeed, the Shinagawa & Osaki and Takanawa submarkets will undergo significant transformations over the coming years, particularly benefitting from their proximity to the major transport hub Shinagawa Station, and may emerge as competitors for nearby business districts in Minato and Chiyoda. 

Completions in 2027 will be similarly moderate compared to 2025, although both 2026 and 2027 will deliver larger amounts of supply than in 2024, which should be a sign of confidence in the continued strength of the market. The Toranomon & Roppongi submarket will again be under the spotlight, with the development of Uchisaiwaicho South Tower by Mitsui Fudosan in the vicinity of the Imperial Hotel. Indeed, the entire area immediately to the east of Hibiya Park will be a hotspot of redevelopment activity over the coming decade, which will eventually transform the area and improve its appeal among potential tenants. 

Marunouchi & Otemachi, the premier office district in Tokyo, will be relatively quiet in terms of new supply between 2024 and 2027. On the other hand, 2028 will be a defining year for the submarket, with the completion of Torch Tower, which, at 390 metres, will be the tallest office building in Japan, and the centrepiece of the large mixed-use Tokyo Torch project, which will transform the northern edge of the Tokyo Station area. In addition, redevelopment work to the Tokio Marine Nichido Building and the head office of MUFG in 2028 and 2029, respectively, will reportedly yield a large amount of premium modern office space. 

The office market in Minato has shown some cracks in recent years, and will reportedly receive around 50% of the new office supply in Tokyo between 2023 and 2027. This may be a slight concern for observers, given the persistent bifurcation between older properties in non-ideal locations and well-located newer ones. That said, Itochu Corporation should be currently deliberating on a potential relocation from its current headquarters building in Minato, which will be demolished as part of the Jingu Gaien redevelopment project, and is rumoured to be eyeing either Azabudai Hills JP Mori Tower or Akasaka Trust Tower as a new headquarters, aiming to occupy around 20,000 tsubo. If this move plays out as such, this could have a significant stabilising effect on the local market. 

New supply in Shibuya will be moderate with the completion of Shibuya Tower. Ongoing redevelopment work to the Shibuya station area will lead to a pick-up in completions around 2028 with Shibuya SCRAMBLE SQUARE West, which will improve accessibility around the station and overall improve the image of the submarket. Other upcoming projects in the Shibuya area include the mixed-use Miyamasuzaka District Project, around half of which will comprise office space. Nearby, Shinjuku is set to be relatively stable over the next couple of years, with the new Meiji Yasuda Seimei building the only moderately large project in the submarket, slated for completion in late 2025. That said, Shinjuku will be in the spotlight towards the end of the decade, given the extensive planned redevelopment of the South and West portions of Shinjuku Station from 2029, with an overall comprehensive target completion date of 2041.

Development activity looks to accelerate through the middle and latter parts of the decade, which is undoubtedly an indicator of confidence in the office market. Many older, struggling offices may utilise this period of dampened leasing demand to implement value-add initiatives and renovations, such as conversions to other commercial usages, in order to adapt to the post-pandemic market and improve competitiveness. Such renovation work may reduce vacancies and usher in further stability across the market. 

However, a handful of risk factors threaten to destabilise this situation. Labour shortages, new regulations on overtime construction work, and inflation may trigger some delays in delivering new supply and may push up construction costs, which will likely cause some difficulties for owners. This trend also extends to tenant relocations, with some companies postponing prospective office moves due to elevated construction costs. That said, these delays may help to balance supply and demand more subtly. 

All major office projects in the pipeline will be mixed-use. Given the relatively lukewarm demand among office tenants compared to pre-pandemic times, offices may not be the clear dominant use of space among mixed-use developments, and nonoffice portions, including residential, retail, and entertainment spaces, are likely to be increasingly prioritised. This trend should transform the overall ambiance of such developments and their surrounding areas, creating a city-within-a-city environment, and should enhance the value of office spaces themselves, and increase the demand for floorspace within these environments among businesses.