Here are some of Tokyo’s notable retail projects to watch over the next few years

The Hulic Aoyama Building Redevelopment Project has commenced construction.

According to a JLL report, construction commenced on the Hulic Aoyama Building redevelopment project, a 9,600 sqm GFA project in a prime Omotesando location in Q2. The building, due in May 2028, has already secured tenants for its retail space and will also feature office and F&B services.

Additionally, the Ginza 2-Chome Miyuki-dori development project has been confirmed. Redeveloped together with the adjacent former Brioni Ginza Building, the report said this will be a retail building with a GFA of 5,700 sqm, due in the summer of 2028 alongside Sotobori-dori.

Here’s more from JLL:

Despite weakening consumer sentiment, overall consumption showed signs of recovery in May, supported by improving employee income. Inbound consumption rose 30% y-o-y in Q1 2025, driven by a record number of foreign visitor arrivals.

Demand for new openings remained robust in Q2, driven by high-performing independent international brands, while appetite from major international brand groups moderated as they finalised space needs. New openings in the quarter included Onitsuka Tiger in Omotesando and Emporio Armani in Ginza.

Capital value growth decelerates, reflecting stable ground-floor rent growth

Rents averaged JPY 99,810 per tsubo, per month in Q2 2025, increasing 0.2% q-o-q and 5.4% y-o-y. Moderated rent growth was driven by upper floors while ground floors remained stable. This marked the 13th consecutive quarter of increases.

Tokyo’s prime retail market saw capital values were stable q-o-q and up 6.2% y-o-y in Q2 2025, driven by rent growth. Mitsui Fudosan’s acquisition of Ginza’s Marugen 31 Building, slated for demolition, presents a redevelopment opportunity.

Outlook: Capital value growth is expected to reflect moderate rent growth

According to the June Oxford Economics’ forecast, private consumption was unchanged and expected to increase by 0.9% in 2025. Consumption is expected to recover as employment and income improve. Risks include trends in consumer sentiment.

Rent growth is expected to persist in the leasing market, though at a slowing rate. Correspondingly, moderate growth in capital values is projected for the investment market, aligning with modest rent increases, as cap rates are expected to hold steady.