Hong Kong residential transactions set to rise 20% to 80,000 units this year

Primary sales are expected to account for 35% of all transactions.

Hong Kong's residential market is showing sustained signs of recovery, with home prices rising for around 11 consecutive months as of April 2026, according to Knight Frank.

The consultancy said monthly residential transaction volumes are currently averaging about 6,600 deals, supported by improved sentiment, the return of mainland Chinese buyers, and gradual absorption of existing supply. Both primary and secondary markets are seeing simultaneous growth in prices and volumes, with well-located and competitively priced projects remaining in strong demand.

Knight Frank forecasts total residential transactions to reach 75,000 to 80,000 units in 2026, representing a 20% year-on-year increase. Primary sales are expected to account for around 35% of total transactions, with secondary market activity making up the remaining 65%.

Cyrus Fong, Executive Director and Head of Valuation & Advisory, Greater China at Knight Frank, said declining inventory, attractive tax policies and free capital flows are supporting renewed capital inflows into the sector.

The consultancy added that low mortgage rates and ample liquidity are expected to support further price growth, with mass residential prices forecast to rise 8% to 10% in 2026.

Rental demand is also strengthening, driven by talent inflows and non-local students. Knight Frank expects residential rents to increase 5% to 8% in 2026, potentially reaching new record highs.

Land sales are also expected to improve, with revenue projected to reach HK$18 billion to HK$22 billion, representing a 130% year-on-year increase.