Q1 migration trends boost demand in Tokyo’s affordable suburbs

Over 3,000 people relocated to areas outside central Tokyo in Q1, up 62%.

Net migration into Tokyo’s 23 wards (23W) remained strong overall in 2025, with a net inflow of 95,000 residents, although momentum softened in Q1 2026 with a modest net outflow of 2,100 people, according to Savills.

Savills said the quarterly decline was driven by a net inflow of 900 Japanese nationals offset by a net outflow of 3,000 foreign nationals. The firm noted that the first quarter is typically the weakest period for foreign migration and that the decline reflects a normalisation following strong post-pandemic inflows rather than a structural shift.

Migration patterns varied across submarkets. Central areas were weaker, with the central five wards (C5W) recording a net outflow of 1,800 people. The Inner North submarket also saw a notable net outflow of 1,000 residents, while the West and South submarkets posted smaller declines.

In contrast, peripheral areas showed greater resilience. Savills highlighted that the Outer East submarket recorded a net inflow of 1,900 people, while the Outer North saw only a marginal net outflow. The Inner East submarket remained broadly stable with a slight net inflow.

Beyond the 23W, migration into wider Tokyo Prefecture strengthened, with 3,500 people relocating to areas outside central Tokyo in Q1 2026, up 62% year-on-year. This included net inflows of both Japanese and foreign nationals.

Savills attributed the growing appeal of peripheral locations to elevated living costs, which are pushing residents toward more affordable areas despite ongoing wage growth. At the same time, the number of foreign nationals living in Tokyo continues to rise, reaching approximately 775,000 as of mid-2025.

Looking ahead, Savills expects migration trends to improve, supported by the peak spring moving season and continued inflows of domestic residents, which should help sustain positive net migration and underpin rental demand.