Singapore HDB resale prices up 2.4% in Q3

Resale prices could rise by up to 10% for the whole year. 

According to the Singapore Housing and Development Board (HDB), resale prices of public housing flats rose by 2.4% QOQ in Q3 2022 – easing slightly from the 2.8% increase in Q2 2022. 

Taking in the flash estimates, PropNex says HDB resale prices have now risen by about 7.8% from end-2021. Based on transaction data, 7,270 HDB resale flats have been sold in Q3 2022 (till 30 Sep) – up by 6.6% from the 6,819 flats resold in the previous quarter.

Here’s more from Wong Siew Ying, Head of Research and Content, PropNex Realty:

HDB resale prices continued to climb unabated in Q3 2022. Looking at resale transaction data, the price growth was observed in both the mature and non-mature HDB towns. Prices of resale HDB flats have remained very resilient, riding out the Covid-19 pandemic and macro uncertainties. Factoring in the Q3 flash estimates, HDB resale prices have grown by 27.6% since the start of the pandemic in 2020 Q1. 

Despite the uncertain global outlook as rate hikes raise the spectre of potential recession in advanced economies, sentiment in the HDB resale market remained lively in Q3. In particular, 111 HDB resale flats were transacted for at least $1 million in Q3 2022 – a record for such sales in a quarter. The new 15-month wait-out period introduced as part of the latest cooling measures will moderate demand for larger flats, especially those in prime locations. Meanwhile, the tighter LTV limit of 80% and a 3% medium-term interest rate floor will restrict the loan quantum for those taking a housing loan from the HDB.

We anticipate that there may be a period of impasse where would-be buyers are waiting for prices to fall while sellers look to hold on to their asking price. This may play out and cause resale volume to moderate slightly perhaps in the next 2 to 3 months, before the market adjusts and finds an equilibrium. Supported by strong underlying demand, we do not expect HDB resale prices to decline significantly; the cooling measures will ensure a more sustainable pace of price growth.  

For the full-year 2022, we forecast that overall HDB resale prices could rise by 9% to 10% - slowing from the 12.7% growth in 2021. In terms of resale volume, we project that 27,000 to 28,000 flats may be resold this year.