Singapore’s government housing land supply slate at an all-time high since 2013

In H1 2024, 10 confirmed list sites will produce over 5,000 residential units.

The Singapore government recently announced its public land sales slate for the first half of 2024 (1H2024), which features the largest housing supply on the Confirmed List in a single government land sales (GLS) programme since the second half of 2013. 

According to PropNex, this also is the seventh consecutive increase in the Confirmed List land supply since 1H 2021 – albeit at a slower pace compared with prior GLS programmes.

Here’s more from PropNex: 

The 1H 2024 GLS programme will comprise 10 Confirmed List sites which can collectively offer 5,450 residential units (including 710 executive condo units and 515 long-stay serviced apartments) and 13,900 sq m gross floor area (GFA) of commercial space.

This represents a 5.6% increase in the residential supply from 5,160 units across eight sites that were lined up under the 2H 2023 Confirmed List (Chart 1). In 2H 2023, the government had ramped up the Confirmed List land supply by 26% (half on half), after boosting supply by nearly 17% HoH in 1H 2023.

Chart 1: Number of Residential Units offered under the GLS by Confirmed/Reserve List

Source: PropNex Research, MND

The 10 sites are also the highest number of plots to be placed on the Confirmed List in a single GLS exercise since 2013. Of the 10 plots, eight are newly introduced in 1H 2024. They are in River Valley Green (Parcel A), Canberra Crescent, Jalan Loyang Besar (EC), Margaret Drive, Media Circle, Dairy Farm Walk, Tengah Garden Avenue, and a commercial and residential plot in Tampines Street 94.

As with the previous GLS programme, the government will offer a good number of prime sites in 1H 2024. In particular, half of the 10 Confirmed List sites are in the Central Region (Holland Drive, River Valley Green (Parcel A), De Souza Avenue, Margaret Drive, and Media Circle) and they collectively offer 2,390 units (44% of the total supply). In 2H 2023, four out of eight sites on the Confirmed List are in the Central Region. 

Meanwhile, the Reserve List - which comprises nine sites – can potentially offer another 3,460 dwelling units (including EC and long-stay serviced apartments), 530 hotel rooms and 93,850 sq m of commercial space. Two of the Reserve List sites – River Valley Green (Parcel B) and Bayshore Road - are new. Of note, the Bayshore Road site is the first sale of site in a new waterfront housing precinct which was recently unveiled by the government. Reserve List plots can be triggered to be launched for tender should there be market demand for them. 

All in, the 1H 2024 GLS will offer 8,910 residential units, 530 hotel rooms, and 107,750 sq m GFA of commercial space across a wide spread of locations under the Confirmed and Reserve Lists.

Ismail Gafoor, CEO of PropNex Realty said:

“The government is walking the talk; by increasing the Confirmed List land supply further – for the seventh straight GLS programme – it shows that it is determined to provide ample housing supply to cater to resilient demand and in turn, keep home prices in check.

In 2023, we note the more restrained appetite for GLS sites among developers amidst market uncertainties. With more land supply earmarked for 1H 2024, developers can be assured that there are sufficient sites to replenish their land inventory – which will also help in moderating land bids. We note that several plum sites are being offered in the 1H 2024 land supply. This will provide a good balance of homes for buyers, and offer alternatives for developers, who may otherwise have to tap the collective sale market for prime residential plots. 

That being said, we had hope that the government would place at least one more EC site on the Confirmed List, as such housing type is extremely popular with buyers, and has resulted in more aggressive bidding for EC plots in the GLS tenders. The only EC site on the 1H 2024 Confirmed List is in Jalan Loyang Besar (EC), next to Downtown East and a short distance from the Pasir Ris MRT station.  

We have seen EC land rates rising through the years. In 2018, the Sumang Walk EC site set a new record land rate at $583 psf ppf, this record has since been smashed as EC land rates continued to climb. The latest record land rate stands at $721 psf ppr for the EC plot at Tampines St. 62 (Parcel B). Meanwhile, prices of new EC units have hit a fresh benchmark, with the average transacted unit price crossing $1,470 psf at Altura EC in Bukit Batok this year.