JLL

Analysts expect a holiday surge in the city’s retail sector.

The city recorded negative demand of -1,346sqm during the quarter.

A majority of this stock is pre-committed.

The decline is due to the removal of high-priced projects that were sold out.

Absorption hit 53,600sqm in Q3.

And there are 12 major projects under construction.

These properties added over 1,500 new rooms to the market.

Rents in the City Fringe are expected to grow by 3-4%.

But analysts say the drop is likely short-lived.

Transactions underperformed the 10-year average of AUD255.4m.

Analysts expect an increased pressure on vacancy rates.

There was only 147,000sqm of new warehouse space.

This was driven by manufacturing occupiers.

New apartment supply remains very low in 2024.In a recent report, JLL said buyer sentiment in the existing housing market in Brisbane has stayed strong, underpinned by a strong inflow of people into the region and also by a lack of available stock in many areas that is keeping competitive tensions high.“New apartment demand is particularly constrained by a lack of available stock, particularly for mass market projects. Sales of luxury apartment projects remain stronger, underpinned by downsizers that continued to be buoyed by strong price growth in existing properties,” the report said.Here’s more from JLL:New apartment supply in Brisbane completions will be higher in 2024 than over recent years, but remains very low. Development conditions remain tough and even securing a builder is a challenge due to so much infrastructure and Olympic work in the pipeline.Rental vacancy remained a low 1.1% in September 2024 (SQM Research). Vacancy has now been around 1% for several years and with little supply relief on the horizon there is unlikely to be much change any time soon.Strong price growth starts to moderateBrisbane existing apartment prices have surged over the past year on the back of limited supply of both new and existing stock and pushed by rising build costs. Nevertheless, the pace of growth is starting to slow.Rents have also surged in Brisbane on the back of tight vacancy the past few years. Nevertheless, affordability is now stretched across many parts of the market and this is increasingly seeing rental growth stall in recent months.Outlook: Supply deficits to buildWhile underlying apartment demand is likely to continue to lift, ongoing tough development conditions will keep new supply levels low, and the supply shortfall is likely to grow increasingly wide.Stretched affordability is likely to remain the only constraint on rents and prices in the near term and the moderation of price growth is likely to continue. However, the increasing supply deficit will likely still support further robust growth over the medium term.Note: Brisbane Residential refers to Inner Brisbane apartments. 

The vacancy rate is expected to remain high at 29%.

High-cost markets see renewed leases, while some push for premium office spaces.