Singapore private residential prices record slowest annual price growth since 2020

Prices increased by 3.9% for full-year 2024.

Prices of private homes in Singapore increased in the fourth quarter due to a surge in new home transactions. According to flash estimates released by the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA), the overall price index for private residential properties rose by 2.3 per cent, a reversal from the 0.7 per cent decline seen in Q3 2024.

For the whole of 2024, a report from OrangeTee noted that private home prices rose 3.9 per cent, slower than the 6.8 per cent in 2023 and 8.6 per cent in 2022. This is also the slowest annual price growth recorded since 2020, when prices increased by 2.2 per cent during the covid-19 pandemic.

Here’s more from OrangeTee:

Prices of non-landed properties – or condos and apartments – surged by 3.2 per cent in the fourth quarter, up from the 0.1 gain in the third quarter of 2024. Landed prices dipped by 0.9 per cent in Q4, slipping slower than the 3.4 per cent decline in the preceding quarter.

Among the sub-markets, prices of non-landed properties increased by 3.4 per cent in the suburbs or Outside the Central Region (OCR) after holding steady at zero growth in the previous quarter. Similarly, prices in the city fringe or the Rest of Central Region (RCR) saw an increase of 3.4 per cent in the fourth quarter, up from the 0.8 per cent increase in the third quarter.

Prices in the luxury or the Core Central Region (CCR) rebounded by 2.4 per cent in Q4 2024, reversing the 1.1 per cent drop in the third quarter.

Reasons behind the faster price growth

The price increase in the fourth quarter was mainly driven by a significant rise in new home sales, with new homes generally commanding higher prices. According to URA realis data, new home sales excluding EC jumped by 206.7 per cent from 1,108 units in Q3 2024 to 3,398 units in Q4 2024. Conversely, resale dropped by 19.6 per cent from 3,834 units to 3,084 units over the same period.  

As a result, new sales constituted 50.6 per cent of the total sales in Q4 2024 (excluding ECs), jumping from 21.1 per cent in Q3 2024 and 14.5 per cent in Q2 2024. Resales constituted 46.0 per cent in Q4 2024, down from 72.9 per cent in the preceding quarter and 78.0 per cent in Q2 2024.

Market Outlook

Looking ahead, we expect private home prices to increase at a faster rate of 4 to 7 per cent in 2025, primarily driven by more project launches and a faster resale price growth due to a tighter supply of homes.

Many new projects are expected to be launched next year. The increased supply will lead to more transactions, with overall residential sales rising by around 5 per cent from approximately 18,600-19,600 units (excluding EC) in 2024 to around 18,000-22,000 units in 2025. Seven large-scale project launches, each exceeding 500 units, may be launched, boosting sales activities significantly. This is an increase from four large-scale projects launched in 2024 and six in 2023. There will be six mid-sized projects, with units ranging from 200 to 500.

Conversely, the number of private home completions or homes obtaining Temporary Occupation Permit (TOP) will dwindle further in 2025. The tight supply will likely drive resale prices higher, especially in the suburbs where demand will likely outstrip supply.

Singapore’s economy in 2025 is projected to be positive, possibly growing by 1 to 3 per cent. Our economy will be supported by the ongoing upswing in the global technology cycle and the general easing of financial conditions worldwide. A stable macroeconomic environment and positive domestic growth outlook will enhance consumer confidence and encourage more investment in the real estate market.