Singapore to see diverse pipeline of residential projects this year

Project- and location-specific attributes will be key sales drivers.

Following the strong performance in Q4 2024 and the continued healthy sales at new launches, The Orie and Bagnall Haus in January 2025, PropNex Realty expects private home sales to do fairly well in 2025, barring any unforeseen events or new cooling measures.

In 2024, the URA PPI grew by 3.9% which is in tandem with the 4% GDP growth, based on advance estimates from the Ministry of Trade and Industry.

According to Ismail Gafoor, CEO of PropNex Realty, the pace of price growth has also slowed from the 6.8% increase in 2023, the 8.6% growth in 2022, and 10.6% jump in 2021. 

“We remain watchful on price trends, and for now we believe the existing measures are still adequate in maintaining a stable property market. We trust that the government will monitor the situation closely before introducing further measures as there may be unintended negative impact should there be an overcorrection – including a supply overhang if demand falls sharply, potential impact on genuine homebuyers, households’ net worth may be affected if home values decline substantially, and other knock-on effects in the real estate sector,” he added.

Here’s more from PropNex:

We are expecting a diverse pipeline of new projects this year – including new ECs, private condo projects, and mixed-use developments - lined up in different towns. From our observations, the key sales drivers will include project- and location-specific attributes, the potential pent-up demand in that area, and keen interest from HDB upgraders.

Given the location of some of the upcoming new launches, we expect to see good response from prospective buyers, including first-time homebuyers and HDB upgraders. For instance, projects like ELTA, Parktown Residence, and Lentor Central Residences are situated in Clementi, Tampines, and Ang Mo Kio planning areas, respectively. We think these towns, and nearby housing estates may potentially have a sizable catchment of HDB upgraders demand.

In addition, the three projects are well-located – ELTA is a short distance from the Clementi MRT station and is near a number of schools, Parktown Residence is part of an integrated development and will be connected to the future Tampines North MRT station, while Lentor Central Residences in the new Lentor Hills estate is within walking distance to the Lentor MRT station. These projects have attributes that could appeal to buyers and investors. In particular, it is possible that ELTA and Parktown Residence could see some pent-up demand. We note that the last new launch near ELTA was Clavon which hit the market in 2020, while the last new launch in Tampines was Treasure at Tampines in 2019.

Another upcoming project is Aurelle of Tampines EC, next to Tenet EC which was launched for sale by the developer in December 2022. The 618-unit Tenet EC sold 72% of its units on launch day, and is almost fully sold based on caveats lodged (617 units sold up till 18 Dec 2024). In view of the strong sales at Tenet and the limited unsold stock of new ECs on the market, we similarly expect Aurelle of Tampines to do well.

By way of broad estimates, we think OCR average prices for new homes may potentially range from $2,200 to $2,500 psf, RCR average prices could be around $2,600 to $2,800 psf, CCR average prices may hover at above $3,000 psf, while EC average prices look likely to trend above $1,650 psf in 2025

In terms of price quantum, we expect a substantial proportion of sales will likely be done at below $3 million. That being said, pricing will depend on a few factors, including the land price, location of the project, the strength of the demand for units, whether the site is affected by the GFA harmonisation rule, and prevailing market conditions.

In 2025, our current projection is for overall private home prices to rise by 3% to 4%, while new home sales could come in at 8,000 to 9,000 units (ex. EC). In the resale market, the number of private homes resold may potentially hover at around 14,000 to 15,000 units in 2025. 

We anticipate that the sizable price gap between new and resale private homes will continue to be a key driver of the resale market. In 2024, the median transacted price of non-landed new private homes (ex. EC) was $2.1 million compared with $1.6 million for resale non-landed private homes, representing a price gap of about 31%.