Singapore HDB resale prices up 2.6% in Q4

This is the 19th consecutive quarter of increase.

Statistics released by the Housing and Development Board (HDB) showed that resale flat prices climbed by 2.6% QOQ in Q4 2024, moderating from the 2.7% QOQ growth in the previous quarter.

According to PropNex, the final print is marginally higher than the flash estimates of a 2.5% QOQ increase. This marks the 19th straight quarter of price increase in the HDB resale segment. Cumulatively, the HDB resale price index has risen by 9.7% in 2024 – accelerating from the 4.9% price increase in 2023.

The HDB said that 6,424 flats were resold in Q4 2024, marking a 21.1% decline from the 8,142 resale flats transacted in Q3 2024. In the full year 2024, 28,986 resale flats changed hands, representing an 8.4% increase from 26,735 flats resold in 2023.

Here’s more from PropNex:

HDB resale flat prices grew at a slightly slower pace in Q4 2024, following three quarters of stronger QOQ growth from Q1 2024. Accordingly, the HDB resale price index was pulled higher in 2024, rising by 9.7% and has surpassed the 4.9% increase in the previous year. This makes the HDB resale flat segment the best performer in the housing market in 2024.

The sharper price growth has prompted the government to implement new cooling measures in August 2024, by cutting the loan-to-value (LTV) limit for HDB home loans from 80% to 75%. Meanwhile, in September 2022, the government introduced a temporary 15-month wait-out period before former private residential property owners who have sold their private home are allowed to purchase a non-subsidised HDB resale flat. It is likely that the measures are still working through the market, and we note that the pace of price growth did slow slightly in the immediate quarters following their introduction. 

With the cooling measures in place, the continued injection of a sizable number of new flats, and price resistance among buyers, we expect HDB resale prices could grow at a slower pace this year, to the tune of 5% to 7% in 2025 compared with 9.7% increase in 2024. 

Meanwhile, the HDB resale volume may hover at around 29,000 to 30,000 units this year, supported by demand from those who have more pressing housing needs, applicants who did not manage to secure a resale flat, and households with a tighter budget seeking more affordable homes. There will also likely be demand for resale flats from former private home owners who have exited the 15-month waiting period, and permanent residents.

In view of fewer resale flats that are estimated to reach the 5-year minimum occupation period (MOP) in 2025 (at around 7,400 units versus 13,000 units in 2024, using completion status as a proxy), there may be tightness in the stock available for resale which may lend support to resale prices. With more private condo launches lined up in 2025, it is also possible that some HDB upgraders may opt to sell their flat first before buying a private home, in order to avoid having to pay the hefty ABSD upfront. Depending on the cost of a replacement home and their financial circumstances, flat owners may be inclined to hold on to their asking price.