Singapore housing market enters ‘Goldilocks’ phase

Analysts say the market is ‘just right,’ as price growth slows and demand holds up.

Singapore’s housing market showed signs of stabilisation in 2025, with private home prices rising at their slowest pace in five years and HDB resale price growth moderating to a six-year low, even as transaction volumes rebounded, according to a report by PropNex Realty.

The trends suggest the market may have entered a “Goldilocks” phase — not overheating, yet supported by resilient demand and buyer confidence — as price growth cools while activity levels remain healthy, PropNex said.

Private home price growth eases

Based on the URA Private Residential Property Index, PropNex noted that private home prices rose by 0.6% quarter-on-quarter in Q4 2025, easing from the 0.9% increase recorded in the previous quarter. The figure was slightly below the flash estimate of a 0.7% increase released in early January.

This marked the fifth consecutive quarter of price growth, bringing cumulative private home price growth in 2025 to 3.3%, down from 3.9% in 2024. PropNex highlighted that the 2025 increase was the slowest annual growth since 2020, when prices rose by 2.2%.

Divergent performance by segment

During the quarter, landed home prices posted the strongest gains, rising 3.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q4 2025. PropNex said this extended the growth streak in the landed segment to four consecutive quarters, culminating in an eighth straight year of price increases, with landed home prices up 7.6% for the full year.

In contrast, non-landed private home prices slipped by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q4 2025. For the whole of 2025, non-landed prices rose by 2.3% — the slowest annual increase since 2019, when prices grew by 1.9%, according to PropNex.

Within the non-landed segment, prices in the Rest of Central Region (RCR) and Outside Central Region (OCR) rose by 0.7% and 1.0% quarter-on-quarter respectively in Q4. This translated into full-year price increases of 1.6% in the RCR and 3.2% in the OCR. PropNex noted that both sub-markets have now recorded nine consecutive years of price growth since 2017, albeit at a more measured pace recently, reflecting demand underpinned largely by Singaporean buyers.

Meanwhile, prices in the Core Central Region (CCR) fell by 3.5% quarter-on-quarter in Q4 2025, though still ended the year 1.9% higher, marking a fifth straight year of price growth, PropNex said.

Transaction volumes rebound

Despite slower price growth, private residential transaction activity strengthened in 2025. PropNex highlighted that developers sold 2,940 new private homes (excluding executive condominiums) in Q4 2025, down 10.6% from the previous quarter. However, total developer sales for the year reached 10,815 units — 67% higher than the 6,469 units sold in 2024.

Developers’ sales hit a four-year high in 2025, supported by easing interest rates, a larger supply of new launches, competitive pricing and improved market sentiment, PropNex said. During the year, 11,482 private homes and 1,360 new EC units were launched, significantly higher than the supply introduced in 2024.

In the executive condominium segment, PropNex noted that 1,630 new EC units were sold in 2025, about 33% more than in 2024. Looking ahead, PropNex expects EC sales to remain elevated in 2026, with up to five new projects potentially entering the market. The consultancy highlighted the strong launch performance of Coastal Cabana EC in Pasir Ris, which sold 66.5% of its units over its launch weekend in mid-January.

In the resale market, PropNex cited URA data showing that 3,529 private homes were resold in Q4 2025, about 9% lower than the previous quarter. For the full year, resale transactions rose 4% year-on-year to 14,622 units — the highest annual resale volume in four years.

Rental market stabilises

Private home rentals softened slightly in Q4 2025, declining 0.5% quarter-on-quarter after rising 1.2% in the previous quarter, according to the URA private residential rental index cited by PropNex. For the whole of 2025, rents rose by 1.9%, reversing the 1.9% decline recorded in 2024.

PropNex attributed the rental recovery to tight rental stock and healthy leasing demand. URA Realis data showed that the number of private home rental contracts climbed to a three-year high of 89,376 in 2025, up from 86,476 contracts in 2024.

Outlook

Looking ahead, PropNex expects private home rents to continue posting marginal single-digit growth in 2026, supported by stable new completions. About 6,083 new private residential units (excluding ECs) are projected to be completed in 2026, broadly in line with 2025 levels.

However, PropNex noted that supply will rise further over the medium term, with new completions expected to increase to 8,757 units in 2027 and 10,101 units in 2028, which could gradually temper rental growth beyond 2026.