Singapore HDB resale price growth slows to all-time low in over five years

Prices inched up by 0.4% in Q3.

Flash estimates released by the Housing and Development Board (HDB) showed that resale flat prices rose at a slower pace of 0.4% QOQ in Q3 2025, decelerating further from the 0.9% QOQ increase in the previous quarter. 

According to PropNex, this is the fourth straight quarter of slower growth in the HDB resale price index, and the price increase in Q3 2025 is also the slowest quarterly growth in over 5 years since the 0.3% QOQ increase in Q2 2020. Cumulatively, HDB resale flat prices have risen by 2.9% in 9M 2025 as per flash estimates - significantly slower than the 6.9% growth in 9M 2024.

The HDB noted that there were 7,157 flats resold in Q3 2025 (till 29 September 2025). PropNex noted that this is slightly higher than the 7,102 HDB resale flats transacted in the previous quarter. The latest data took the number of resale flats sold to 20,849 in the first nine months of 2025 (till 29 September). In comparison, there were 22,562 HDB flats resold in 9M 2024.

Wong Siew Ying, Head of Research and Content, PropNex Realty, said:

“The continued deceleration in quarterly price growth in Q3 2025 as per the flash estimates suggests that the run-up in HDB resale prices in prior years is giving way to a more measured climb, following both demand- and supply-side measures from the government in recent years. The 0.4% QOQ increase in Q3 2025 is the slimmest quarterly price growth since the HDB resale price index inched up by 0.3% QOQ in Q2 2020 (when circuit breaker measures were implemented during the COVID-19 pandemic). 

Meanwhile, the resale flat volume was relatively stable, with more than 7,100 flats resold in Q3 2025. Overall, we project that HDB resale transactions may range from 27,000 to 28,000 units for the whole of 2025, while HDB resale prices could climb by 3% to 4% this year – slowing significantly from the 9.7% increase in 2024.

In our view, the ample supply of new flats – including projects in attractive locations - under HDB’s build-to-order (BTO) and sale of balance flats (SBF) exercises acts as counterbalance, helping to meet public housing demand and potentially drawing some buyers from the HDB resale market to apply for new flats that have shorter waiting time. The sustained BTO supply is also useful in offering alternatives to prospective buyers, particularly in a year where the number of flats attaining the 5-year minimum occupation period (MOP) is low, at 8,000 units in 2025 which may potentially crimp the resale stock of flats.

While the overall HDB resale market is stabilising, we note there remains a small pocket of strength in certain areas which have contributed to another record-breaking quarter of million-dollar resale flats sold in Q3 2025. During the quarter, there were 480 resale flats transacted for at least $1 million, up from 415 units in Q2 2025, and pushing the total tally of such flats resold to 1,243 units in the first nine months of 2025 – which is about 6% of the total HDB resale volume during the period. The figure has already surpassed the all-time high of 1,035 units of million-dollar resale flats that changed hands in the entire 2024. At this rate, the number of flats resold for at least $1 million looks certain to exceed 1,500 units this year.

The 480 million-dollar flats resold in Q3 2025 comprised one 3-room terrace flat, 204 units of 4-room flats, 172 units of 5-room flats, 102 executive flats and a multi-gen flat. In particular, the number of such flats sold in the 4- and 5-room flat types are quarterly highs. By town, Toa Payoh led million-dollar resale flat transactions in Q3 2025, with 92 such deals, followed by 61 units in Bukit Merah, and 40 units in Kallang Whampoa.

Overall, we expect a more stable and gradual HDB resale market in Q4 2025 amid existing policy guardrails and the increased supply of new flats. That said, we believe prices of well-located resale flats with sought-after attributes – close to the city, near to MRT station and amenities, on a high floor, large unit size, lengthy lease balance etc. – will remain supported due to the healthy buying interest for these flats.

The continued moderation in HDB resale price growth could help pave the way for the easing of the 15-month wait-out period measure. Meanwhile, the government has said that it is looking at reviewing the monthly household income ceiling for BTO flats. When the change takes place, we reckon there may possibly be some knock-on impact on the resale segment. For instance, perhaps some buyers have had to turn to resale flats as they could not apply for a BTO flat due to their higher household income, but they may potentially be able to do so should the income ceiling be increased. In a way, the raising of the monthly household income ceiling will likely enlarge the demand pool for the ample supply of BTO flats, while at the same time help to moderate resale demand.”