Adelaide retail rental growth to average 2.0% to 2.9% over five years

This is across the regional, sub-regional and neighbourhood sub-sectors.

Rental growth in Adelaide’s retail market is expected to accelerate over the coming years, supported by strong tenant demand, according to JLL.

The firm forecasts that annual rental growth across regional, sub-regional and neighbourhood shopping centres will average between 2.0 and 2.9% over the next five years, reflecting sustained leasing activity and limited supply pressures.

However, JLL cautioned that investment volumes may slow in the near term, as investors are likely to remain selective amid ongoing global economic uncertainty and the potential for interest rate hikes.

Here’s more from JLL:

SA household spending continues to trend upwards over Q4 2025, increasing 4.5% (year-on-year) in October 2025 versus 3.7% in July 2025. The strongest year-on-year spending growth was recorded in the health category (11.6% year-on-year).

Despite leasing activity remaining relatively slow in the Adelaide market, service operators and food and beverage retailers continued to drive demand over the quarter, securing new high profile retail space in the Adelaide CBD.

No major completions in the Adelaide market

No major completions were recorded over the quarter in Adelaide. Only one retail centre completed over the past 12 months, adding 20,700 sqm of retail to stock; below the 10-year annual average of 29,700 sqm.

There are seven projects under construction totalling 59,900 sqm, with the latest project expected to be completed by Q4 2026. Additionally, there are four projects with plans approved, totalling 32,600 sqm, and one project with plans submitted, totalling 3,850 sqm.

Marginal rental growth over the quarter

Average rents across all sub-sectors were broadly stable in Q4 2025. High construction costs persist and retailer demand for space remain broadly resilient.

Yields were unchanged across all sub-sectors over the quarter. On an annual basis, a yield tightening of 25 basis points was recorded across the regional and neighbourhood sub-sectors.