Tokyo prime logistics rents up 0.8% in Q3

The rental growth was driven by prime locations.

In a recent report, JLL revealed gross prime logistics rents in Greater Tokyo averaged JPY 4,724 per tsubo, per month in Q3 2025, up 0.4% q-o-q and up 0.8% y-o-y. Rent increases in prime locations are high, while rent increases in fringe areas are very gradual, creating a polarised picture.

“Capital values in Greater Tokyo rose 0.5% q-o-q and 0.6% y-o-y in Q3 2025, reflecting rent increases. Notable sales transactions included the portfolio acquired by Warberg Pincus and sold by Mitsui Fudosan Logistics REIT,” the report said.

Here’s more from JLL:

Demand pushed net absorption to 696,000 sqm in Q3 2025. This is more than double from the previous quarter.

As transport costs rise, demand is strong for properties close to the city centre with short transportation distances, while properties in fringe areas with higher transport costs are struggling to find favour.

Overall vacancy decreases to 9.1%

New supply totalled 472,000 sqm in Q3 2025, increasing the total stock by 2.5% q-o-q. Four facilities entered the market. Two are located in the Bay Area, and the others are located in the Inland Area.

The vacancy rate in Greater Tokyo was 9.1% in Q3 2025, down 116 bps q-o-q and 79 bps y-o-y. The vacancy rate in the Bay Area fell to 8.3%, a decrease of 16 bps q-o-q, while in Tokyo Inland it also fell to 9.4%, a decrease of 155 bps.

Outlook: Rents to continue to rise; cap rates to remain stable

As demand continues to grow and construction costs rise, rents are expected to rise, particularly in areas with good access. However, in fringe areas, given the abundance of vacant space and increases in transportation costs, rents are under downward pressure.

The upward trend in interest rates is expected to continue. However, investment demand from a variety of investors remains strong, and yields are unlikely to change. Capital values of properties in good locations are expected to rise, coupled with increasing rents.