Why Singapore private home prices grew at the slowest pace in three quarters

Home prices only increased by a marginal 0.5% in Q2 2025.

According to Ismail Gafoor, CEO of PropNex Realty, the flash estimates showed that Singapore private home prices grew at the slowest pace in three quarters in Q2 2025 at 0.5% QOQ. This may be partly due to the limited number of new project launches during the quarter – there were three launches in April, none in May and just two new projects in June. The five projects that debut in Q2 2025 have a total of 1,526 units, compared with six launches in Q1 2025 which have 3,251 units (ex. EC) collectively.

“Furthermore, some of the projects launched in Q1 2025 have set new benchmark prices at their respective locales, which had helped to prop up prices in the previous quarter. To be sure, the overall moderation in price growth to a more sustainable pace of late is not a bad thing for the market,” Gafoor added.

Here’s more from PropNex:

Of note, buyer sentiment turned more cautious in Q2 2025 amid heightened market uncertainties, arising from the announcement of sweeping US trade tariffs in April and later, the Middle East conflict in June. Downside risks persist and we expect buyers could remain circumspect in their purchase decisions. 

Moving forward, the sense of FOMO may perhaps not be as strong as what we saw in Q4 2024 or Q1 2025, but we anticipate that prospective buyers will still enter the market if they perceive that the project offers a strong value proposition, with potential upside in the future. To this end, we anticipate developers will be more sensitive with their pricing at the initial stages of a project launch, if they wish to get sales off to a good start.

In Q2 2025, about 26% of the non-landed private new homes sold (ex. EC) were priced at below $1.5 million, including mainly smaller units from projects such as One Marina Gardens and Bloomsbury Residences. A large portion of new home sales (67% in Q2) continued to be done at below $2.5 million, which remains a pricing sweet-spot for many homebuyers and investors in today’s market.

Amid limited launches and lower sales volume, the median transacted unit price ($PSF) gap of non-landed new sales (ex. EC) between regions widened across the board in Q2 from Q1 2025, according to caveats lodged up till 22 June 2025. That being said, the price gap between the CCR and RCR was relatively tight at about 12% in Q2 2025.

Home sales remained driven by local demand in view of the hefty additional buyer’s stamp duty (ABSD) rate on foreigners at 60%. In Q2 2025 (till 22 June), foreigners (non-PR) made up 1.3% of overall non-landed private home sales (ex. EC) based on caveats lodged – down from 6.9% in Q1 2023 before the tightening of the ABSD measure in April 2023. Meanwhile, Singaporeans and Singapore PR accounted for about 80.8% and 17.8% of the non-landed private home sales, respectively.

We are cautiously optimistic about private home sales in Q3 2025 as several projects – with attractive locations near to an MRT station and amenities – are expected to be launched. Given that a good number of the launches are in the CCR and RCR, we anticipate that private home prices may be well-supported in Q3. About 4,700 new units (including EC) may potentially be put on the market in July and August, ahead of the start of the 7th lunar month (Ghost Month) on 23 August.

The upcoming projects in July and August could include W Residences Singapore – Marina View, LyndenWoods, The Robertson Opus, UpperHouse at Orchard Boulevard, Canberra Crescent Residences, Promenade Peak, River Green, Springleaf Residence, Artisan 8, and Otto Place EC. These projects are well-spread out from the city centre to the heartlands, and across all segments of the market from EC to luxury homes. After nearly two months without any major project launches, we expect the upcoming projects to draw buyer interest. Other factors that can help to underpin the property market include the tight labour market, healthy household balance sheet, and moderating interest rates.

Meanwhile, government land sales tenders also saw improved participation from developers recently, suggesting a good level of confidence among developers about private housing demand and market outlook. For instance, the GLS tender for a residential plot in Dunearn Road drew nine bids when it closed recently – the highest number of bids for a non-EC GLS plot since the tenders closed for two sites in Slim Barracks Rise (which attracted 10 bids each) in September 2021.

PropNex projects that overall private home prices could potentially rise by 3% to 4% for the entire 2025, supported by oncoming stock of new launches, including many projects in the city and city fringe. Meanwhile, developers’ sales are expected to come in at 8,000 to 9,000 units (ex. EC), while the private resale volume may reach around 14,000 to 15,000 units in 2025.