Singapore HDB resale prices to grow by 3-5% this year

Analysts expect around 26,000 to 28,000 transactions to be completed.

In December 2023, Singapore’s HDB resale volume experienced a decline for the second consecutive month due to the slowdown in the market activities during the year-end holidays.

Moreover, OrangeTee says the sales were impacted by demand shifting to the BTO market, as approximately 6,000 new flats were launched for sale in December.

Here’s more from OrangeTee Research:

The price growth remained modest, with an increase of just 0.6 per cent month-on-month in December. This is the eighth consecutive month where the monthly price growth either dipped or rose by less than 1 per cent. For the whole of 2023, prices rose by 5.8 per cent.

We predict that prices may continue to grow modestly this year, with a growth rate of approximately 3 to 5 per cent. The total resale volume may maintain its stability this year, with around 26,000 to 28,000 transactions.

Certain market segments, particularly big flats, may experience higher demand in the first half of this year. This is because the first batch of private residential property owners who intend to buy HDB resale flats will have fulfilled their 15-month wait-out period since the implementation of the rule in September 2022. Therefore, some of these private home downgraders may purchase bigger units like 5-room or executive flats.

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Here’s a rundown of Brisbane’s residential market performance in Q3

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Here’s a rundown of Brisbane’s residential market performance in Q3

New apartment supply remains very low in 2024.In a recent report, JLL said buyer sentiment in the existing housing market in Brisbane has stayed strong, underpinned by a strong inflow of people into the region and also by a lack of available stock in many areas that is keeping competitive tensions high.“New apartment demand is particularly constrained by a lack of available stock, particularly for mass market projects. Sales of luxury apartment projects remain stronger, underpinned by downsizers that continued to be buoyed by strong price growth in existing properties,” the report said.Here’s more from JLL:New apartment supply in Brisbane completions will be higher in 2024 than over recent years, but remains very low. Development conditions remain tough and even securing a builder is a challenge due to so much infrastructure and Olympic work in the pipeline.Rental vacancy remained a low 1.1% in September 2024 (SQM Research). Vacancy has now been around 1% for several years and with little supply relief on the horizon there is unlikely to be much change any time soon.Strong price growth starts to moderateBrisbane existing apartment prices have surged over the past year on the back of limited supply of both new and existing stock and pushed by rising build costs. Nevertheless, the pace of growth is starting to slow.Rents have also surged in Brisbane on the back of tight vacancy the past few years. Nevertheless, affordability is now stretched across many parts of the market and this is increasingly seeing rental growth stall in recent months.Outlook: Supply deficits to buildWhile underlying apartment demand is likely to continue to lift, ongoing tough development conditions will keep new supply levels low, and the supply shortfall is likely to grow increasingly wide.Stretched affordability is likely to remain the only constraint on rents and prices in the near term and the moderation of price growth is likely to continue. However, the increasing supply deficit will likely still support further robust growth over the medium term.Note: Brisbane Residential refers to Inner Brisbane apartments.

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